by Bill Fontana
So, here we are, almost at the end of 2020 – a year unlike any other that most of us have ever experienced. And as we stand on the threshold of a much anticipated and very welcome New Year, the promise of world-wide distribution of various forms of the COVID-19 vaccine holds out the promise of some degree of a return to normalcy during 2021.
Is your organization ready to address the revitalization issues that will confront it during the 2021 recovery process and beyond? Let us look at some of the post-COVID-19 issues that we, as revitalization professionals, will need to confront:
Do you expect a reduction in upper floor commercial use because of “working from home” requirements imposed by COVID-19?
I believe that this issue, more than any other, will impact the use of commercial space in our downtown areas. I think that the loss of first and upper floor commercial office space will have a significant impact on our downtown economies. Your organization should be prepared to assist with converting upper floor units to housing and/or have updated marketing materials to assist property owners with renting vacant space.
Do you think the above question, if true, will result in a greater need for co-working space in your community?
Since I think the first question is true, then the answer to this question must be yes. Finding space in your downtown to develop co-working space, providing space for newly-work from-home focused businesses to meet somewhere downtown when they do need to get together will be critically important. Having in place the telecommunications and broad-band capabilities (communications platforms, supportive meeting software and teleconference hardware) to support the need for rentable meeting space will be a new imperative. What can your organization do to assist with these efforts?
Do you think that there will be a greater need for facilities such as business incubators, makerspace, and commercial kitchens because of business closings resulting from COVID-19?
Much like the above question, I expect the answer to this question to also be yes. This could be especially true with respect to certified, rentable, commercial kitchen space. After the financial crash of 2008-2009, this particular component of the “sharing-economy” grew dramatically. Many expected this “fad” to fade as the economy recovered, but it has not. The impact of the pandemic on the restaurant industry may well result in increased demand for these types of facilities as those in the food industry look to get back on their feet.
Will the growth of on-line retailing and restaurant delivery services permanently change the landscape of these two sectors and therefore negatively impact these two critical components of placemaking?
Yes and no on this question, in my opinion. I think many people who previously thought on-line shopping was too difficult have been forced to develop this skill set. I do think that this trend will carry over post-pandemic. Helping retail businesses develop their e-commerce capabilities should be high on your agenda if it already is not. On the other hand, I think as soon as people can get safely get back out to restaurants, bars, taverns, pubs, etc., they will be flocking to these places. The issue here will be supply and demand. It may take a while for the supply of dining-drinking facilities to recover. Being prepared to assist food-related entrepreneurs with finding and developing vacant space should also be a priority for your organization.
Do you think there will be permanent changes to the way we use public space as a result of COVID-19?
I am still on the fence on this one. I do know that many thought-leaders on community design are addressing this issue. Architects are thinking about the extent to which we have created airtight building environments when the need for fresh, outside air is so important. Planners are re-thinking the way we use the public right-of-way to assist with the outdoor seating and meeting requirements of private sector businesses. This is one of those issues that you need to stay on top of as it evolves. Beginning to review your zoning ordinance may be a prudent short-term step to be prepared for changes that this issue may bring to the fore.
Will we see a move from large cities to smaller ones?
Perhaps. I think that this issue will be largely informed by the post-pandemic preparedness hearings / industry that will undoubtedly follow in 2022 and beyond. You are already hearing the rumblings of being better prepared for “the next one”- God-forbid. Once again, if the thought-leaders predict more of these kinds of global disruptions in the not-too distant future, then I think the answer will be yes. Where these people may move will largely depend on how they perceive the ability of a place to meet their lifestyle demands. So, addressing the previous questions may better position your community to take advantage of this migration, should it in fact take place.
So that is the task for the short term. Begin SOON to address these topics in your organization and amend your plans accordingly. By the time I write the next edition of this article, the personal recovery afforded by the promise of the vaccine should be well underway. So too will the recovery of those communities best positioned to take advantage of the new opportunities. Do not be left behind.
Until then, stay safe, wear a mask, social-distance and try your best to have a happy holiday season. Merry Christmas, Happy Kwanzaa, Happy Hanukkah, Happy New Year, and happy Festivus for the rest of us (I bet the airing of grievances will be overwhelming).